predicting the unpredictable

I have been busy trying to do some of my own analysis. Wow!

As I started, it seemed a fairly mundane and number crunching exercise. The plan... take the remaining series and assume a similar outcome from the previous match ups, compare our newly calculated expected final record and the White Sox, and bingo bango boom... easy schmeesy prediction. How hard could it be, asked the CPA in me?

Ok - fast forward hours later after realizing that the previous series for the Twins had lots of switches for fields (first series was away, while the remaining one is home, or visa versa). (Note - this was my big DUH moment, so go ahead, I said it so you are more than welcome to say it too.) So, should I adjust for home field advantage? If so, by how much? And what about outcomes that were so odd they shouldn't ended the way they did? Should I go back and fix those and THEN extrapolate? Or leave them in to cover the oddities that are yet to come?

Plus, what about the momentum factor? We now are filling the stadium with a consistent number of screaming fans who may have been nay sayers four months ago, but if asked, would never admit to it now. The bandwagon is full (I believe it is 17 straight home games with more than 30K fans) and the wagon is barrelling full speed. Will the full fan support help them through some of their issues, and make them give even more? Frankly, the issues we are facing are the same ones we started with and some of our rookies are starting to perform and look like veterans, (of course, the opposite also holds true for some) so I decided to ignore the current issues in comparing outcomes. For example, our relievers are not doing very well, Carlos is no longer hitting homers, BUT our relievers really haven't performed exceptionally all year, and where Carlos is slumping there are others (my man Kubel for example) who seem to be hitting more consistently. Evens out in my mind.

Of our remaining series 7 are away and 5 are home. Given our road record, there goes another factor.

End result - a pure, unadulterated, attempt-at-mathematical-calculation-gone-awry guess. A guess I spent several hours and a couple sleepless nights pondering, but ended with a guess none the less.

Drum roll please... my highly sophisticated guess is 90-72 and unfortunately, you guessed it, I came up with exactly the same number for the Sox. I have hopes of seeing 100, but it seems like with as many road games as we have remaining and with some of the teams we need to face, that will be a difficult (but not impossible) number to reach.

Me and my humbled spreadsheets retire as odds makers, and leave it to the pros!

Go Twins!!!